The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan on containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China
Hien Lau , Veria Khosrawipour , Piotr Kocbach , Agata Mikołajczyk , Justyna Schubert , Jacek Bania , Tanja Khosrawipour
AbstractBackground With its epicenter in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 outbreak was declared a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO). Consequently, many countries have implemented flight restrictions to China. China itself has imposed a lockdown of the population of Wuhan as well as the entire Hubei province. However, whether these two enormous measures have led to significant changes in the spread of COVID-19 cases remains unclear. Methods We analyzed available data on the development of confirmed domestic and international COVID-19 cases before and after lockdown measures. We evaluated the correlation of domestic air traffic to the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and determined the growth curves of COVID-19 cases within China before and after lockdown as well as after changes in COVID-19 diagnostic criteria. Results Our findings indicate a significant increase in doubling time from 2 days (95% Confidence Interval, CI): 1.9–2.6), to 4 days (95% CI: 3.5–4.3), after imposing lockdown. A further increase is detected after changing diagnostic and testing methodology to 19.3 (95% CI: 15.1–26.3), respectively. Moreover, the correlation between domestic air traffic and COVID-19 spread became weaker following lockdown (before lockdown: r = 0.98, p < 0.05 vs. after lockdown: r = 0.91, p = NS). Conclusions A significantly decreased growth rate and increased doubling time of cases was observed, which is most likely due to Chinese lockdown measures. A more stringent confinement of people in high risk areas seem to have a potential to slow down the spread of COVID-19.
|Journal series||Journal of Travel Medicine, ISSN 1195-1982, e-ISSN 1708-8305, (N/A 70 pkt)|
|Publication size in sheets||0.5|
|Keywords in English||pandemic, coronavirus, COVID-19, spread, effective, measures|
|Score||= 70.0, 15-09-2020, ArticleFromJournal|
|Publication indicators||= 51; = 27; : 2018 = 0.903; : 2018 = 4.155 (2) - 2018=2.968 (5)|
|Citation count*||222 (2020-09-23)|
* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.