Evaluating the massive underreporting and undertesting of COVID-19 cases in multiple global epicenters
H. Lau , Tanja Khosrawipour , P. Kocbach , H. Ichii , Jacek Bania , Veria Khosrawipour
AbstractBackground: With continuous global COVID-19 outbreak, differing case numbers and mortalityrates are observed. While actual case numbers appear vague, mortality numbers related toCOVID-19 seem more precise. In this study, we used the mortality rate as the main indicator toevaluate the extent of underreporting and underdetection of COVID-19 cases.Methods: We have analyzed all available data provided by the World Health Organization onthe development of international COVID-19 cases and mortality numbers on March 17th, 2020. Acrude case-fatality risk (cCFR) and adjusted case-fatality risk (aCFR) was calculated for China,South Korea, Japan, Italy, France, Spain, Germany, Iran and the United States. Additionally, afold-change (FC) was derived for each country.Results: The highest aCFR and FC were detected for Spain. Based on their FC values, anextremely high number of undetected COVID-19 cases was displayed in France, the UnitedStates, Italy and Spain. For these countries, our findings indicate a detection rate of only 1---2%of total actual COVID-19 cases.Conclusions: Due to limited testing capacities, mortality numbers may serve as a better indi-cator for COVID-19 case spread in many countries. Our data indicate that countries like France,Italy, the United States, Iran and Spain have extremely high numbers of undetected and under-reported cases. Differences in testing availability and capacity, containment as well as overallhealth care and medical infrastructure result in significantly different mortality rates andCOVID-19 case numbers for each respective country.
|Journal series||Pulmonology, ISSN 2531-0437, (N/A 20 pkt)|
|Publication size in sheets||0.5|
|Keywords in English||Pandemic, Death, Rate, Mortality, COVID-19, Spread|
|License||Journal (articles only); published final; ; with publication|
|Not used for evaluation||yes|
|Citation count*||13 (2020-09-16)|
* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.